Pioneer of the Nile has a shot at it I do believe and he is one of my picks just because I think he’s a great horse. If I had the money and felt confident in betting on such contentious races I would probably box a exacta between Pioneer of the Nile and Rachel Alexandra…I would want Rachel Alexandra to blow away the field, of course, so I could see history in the making and give the filly her due respect…and fillies in general.

Now…everyone is almost writing off Mine that Bird but I would probably count him on being there in the end somewhere. The Derby proved that he does have what it takes to go the distance and is in the proper condition to have plenty of gas in the tank at the end. If you get a chance to see the replay of the Derby from an overhead shot you will see this horse absolutely take off like a Ferrari when Calvin asked him to. No, Calvin isn’t riding him today but Mike Smith definately is a world class jockey and that is why I count Mine That Bird in as part of a good solid trifecta. He has shown what he’s got and this horse has a lot to offer and Mike is the guy to get the best of out him…

I think if I were to want to play the Superfecta I would put Papa Clem in there somewhere also. He was another horse that I really liked for the Derby so I wouldn’t count him out.

One thing I’ve noticed about Rachel Alexandra from looking at her and Calvin’s performance at The Oaks and comparing that to a couple of other races is that she seems to run faster if she isn’t whipped. Now, I am not opposed to a jockey whipping a horse. I don’t believe that it’s the same as whipping a human or something like that and I see the value in whipping with the right horse….but it’s rare to see a horse destroy a field like Rachel Alexandra did at the Oaks and Calvin didn’t touch her…the two or three other races that I saw he did use the whip…she still won but not by 20 1/4 lengths….just some food for thought and I could be wrong but I think that Calvin has this filly figured out and I wish her and him all the best today at the Preakness.

We’ll see how it all plays out but I do believe that we may see history being made today in Maryland. And as much as I love to be right and how much I enjoy winning, I wish more than anything that all the horses and jockeys arrive at the finish safe and sound…safety above all else…

This fact can be seen in Calvin Borel’s winning record on Rachel Alexandra…..he is unbeaten on her, and hopefully he will remain that way come Saturday at the Preakness! LOL

The fact is that winning jockeys get the best horses. This may go against your thinking or beliefs but it is the best horses that have the money behind them in the form of ownership and these are the mounts that the best jockeys want since that’s where the money is in the form of percentage of winnings. Nothing can be more heartbreaking than having a great horse and placing it in the hands of a jockey that doesn’t know how to get the best out of that horse….perhaps a jockey that can’t hold a horse back at the begining of a race and thus the horse is spent come the end of the race. Yes, there are always exceptions to the rule and there are a lot of young, new jockeys out there with pure talent….as well as some older, “experienced” jocks that just lack real talent…that intuitiveness where they become one with the horse. But as a general rule, older, more experienced jockeys get the better horses and thus have a better winning percentage.

This fact is why as a part of my own betting system I do take into consideration a jockey’s win percentage. I don’t treat this as a flat number but I do actually take that percentage and weigh it against all the other jockeys in the running.

There are many variables to take into consideration and a jockey’s winning percentage is just one of them. You may ask, “what betting system do you use?” and I’ll tell you that I use MY betting system. It may look a lot like many of the other ones out there but this one is mine. I am constantly modifying and tweeking and and changing things a little bit as things change in an attempt to get a better handle on exactly what all these variables mean in my handicapping…but not too much. How did I come up with this system? I read a lot and take the advice of others who have gone before me and been successful like Michael Wilding of Puntology fame.

To find out more about this “education in punting”….this “PHD in betting on horse racing”….this “Masters Degree in Gambling” go to http://www.horsebettingsystems.info/recommends/puntology/