Pioneer of the Nile has a shot at it I do believe and he is one of my picks just because I think he’s a great horse. If I had the money and felt confident in betting on such contentious races I would probably box a exacta between Pioneer of the Nile and Rachel Alexandra…I would want Rachel Alexandra to blow away the field, of course, so I could see history in the making and give the filly her due respect…and fillies in general.

Now…everyone is almost writing off Mine that Bird but I would probably count him on being there in the end somewhere. The Derby proved that he does have what it takes to go the distance and is in the proper condition to have plenty of gas in the tank at the end. If you get a chance to see the replay of the Derby from an overhead shot you will see this horse absolutely take off like a Ferrari when Calvin asked him to. No, Calvin isn’t riding him today but Mike Smith definately is a world class jockey and that is why I count Mine That Bird in as part of a good solid trifecta. He has shown what he’s got and this horse has a lot to offer and Mike is the guy to get the best of out him…

I think if I were to want to play the Superfecta I would put Papa Clem in there somewhere also. He was another horse that I really liked for the Derby so I wouldn’t count him out.

One thing I’ve noticed about Rachel Alexandra from looking at her and Calvin’s performance at The Oaks and comparing that to a couple of other races is that she seems to run faster if she isn’t whipped. Now, I am not opposed to a jockey whipping a horse. I don’t believe that it’s the same as whipping a human or something like that and I see the value in whipping with the right horse….but it’s rare to see a horse destroy a field like Rachel Alexandra did at the Oaks and Calvin didn’t touch her…the two or three other races that I saw he did use the whip…she still won but not by 20 1/4 lengths….just some food for thought and I could be wrong but I think that Calvin has this filly figured out and I wish her and him all the best today at the Preakness.

We’ll see how it all plays out but I do believe that we may see history being made today in Maryland. And as much as I love to be right and how much I enjoy winning, I wish more than anything that all the horses and jockeys arrive at the finish safe and sound…safety above all else…

So…I’m all jazzed up with everything that’s been going on and I get an email this morning offering tips for todays races at Churchill and Belmont. These tips are coming from a very reliable handicapper who claims to have picked the trifecta for the Derby keying on Mine That Bird…so he has my attention. $15 and I’ll have hot tips from one of the most respected handicappers in the country…so I bite. I’ve got stars in my eyes and see what I think is a shortcut to winning at the track…..sounds pretty good eh? $15 and I’ve got tips for a 20-1 shot, a exacta box and a trifecta. I’m thinking that even if one of these comes in I should be able to at least break even….

Now, I’m not a big fan of tip services or tipster services. I don’t even take seriously anything that I read on message boards…at least not a plain tip sheet. I am basically an honest man and I love the sport of horse racing and I want to become as proficient as possible and tipster services always sort of reminded me of the kid in school that would want to cheat off of your test. There is a certain satisfaction that comes from picking horses yourself and win, lose or scratch, at least I have nobody to blame but myself.

Needless to say, none of the tips were worth a damn. I sure am glad that I did fork over the $100 to race with these blokes this entire week! If I want to pick losing horses I can do that for free and I’ll tell you that I had better luck on my own this past weekend! I picked 4 out of 5 races…played it safe and bet to show (because that’s just how I roll sometimes when a race is contentious)…but 4 out of 5 horses ran in the money. Not too bad for a guy that isn’t a world reknown handicapper! Perhaps I should start my own tipping service!?

Please done’t be emailing me asking me to help you by sending you my tips. There is nothing spectacular about me or my handicapping. I just love the sport and enjoy handicapping and have worked to educate myself. I WILL tell you what put me on the right path…and I’m no bullshitting you…Puntology…this is where I would begin if I were you. If you really want to save youself a lot of time and trouble just sign up for this course. It is a no bull, shoot from the hip education in how to pick winners and become a professional punter. Do what the guy says….pick up a couple of the books that I recommend on my site and get yourself an education in betting on the ponies. Don’t waste your time with tipster services and lame systems. I promise you that you won’t be dissapointed in Puntology.

To learn more about Puntology go to http://www.horsebettingsystems.info/recommends/puntology

and to see some honest reviews of horse betting systems go to

http://www.horsebettingsystems.info

Anyhow…I wanted to touch on the subject of risk and reward. We all have choices in life and even more so in horse racing. Which catagory do we wish to be in? Do we want to be risk takers, hedging our bets in hope of minimizing that risk while capitolizing upon the great rewards that come from taking “said risk.”….or do we wish to keep all risks to a minimum and only travel down the path where unfortunate things do happen yet when they do they are rare and don’t last long. Do we want to bet on a “sure thing”…or at least as much of a sure thing as we can muster in betting on horse racing? Personally, I tend to beat myself up pretty bad when going through a losing streak…take the above race that I’m waiting to go off. “Marybeth Marybeth” is the odds on favorite according to the morning line odds…but horse racing can be unpredictable, as can be seen in Mine That Bird’s Derby win a couple of weeks ago…. a smallish horse that most folks didn’t even put in the running. Things have a way of happening and it’s great if you’re on the winning side of them but not so much if you were the odds on favorite wondering “Who Dat?”….”who just went flying by me?”

There is also another school of thought that the reward for playing it safe isn’t worth risking laying that money down on the odds on favorite….the pay off isn’t enough to risk something happening like having a Mine That Bird coming inside on the rail and blowing away everyone.

I believe that there has to be a balance…that we only take the calculated risk when we believe that we have all our bases covered or remove as much of the risk as is possible and thus reap some of the rewards and take our lumps like a grown up.

The above is why I have started to change things up for myself and am looking into learning how to effectively bet Trifectas and Superfectas. I played around with them when I was younger….the exotics like Trifectas and the Daily Double were my Dad’s favorites and he taught me a bit…but not enough for me to feel confident. I’ve picked up a couple of books that I’ll post links to on here this afternoon once I’m done and I’ve also picked up a nice little course/system on Superfectas.

I will caution you against using “systems” right out of the box and thinking that the publisher’s promises of making you money without having to know a thing about horse racing…there are no “instant riches” without some sort of work…and if horse racing interests you then it won’t really be “work” (UGH! such a dirty word!)…it’s more of a puzzle or skill that I want to learn…a love of the sport and desire to be proficient at or wish to know as much about as I possibly can. What’s the payoff? The satisfaction of having this knowledge and also knowing that I have a skill that I can use for the rest of my life….a past time/hobby/job that I can work at in my leisure that will provide for me and that I enjoy at the same time. Imean, I am a pretty good handicapper…but I don’t think I will ever be as good as I want to be.

Overall, this has been a good weekend with a 100% strike rate so far for the weekend with four races yesterday and only one today that I wanted to mess with. I just couldn’t resist this horse…only the future will tell if I have chosen wisely!

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HE HE HE!!! Ran in the money! Paid 3.20 on a $2 bet to show!